The third round of negotiations between the Government of Pakistan and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) commenced on January 16 at Parliament House, Islamabad. During the session, PTI presented a three-page document outlining their demands.
These included forming separate judicial commissions to investigate the events of May 9 and November 24–27, along with the release of political prisoners. However, PTI’s longstanding demand for reclaiming its mandate after the February 8, 2024 elections was notably absent.
Following the session, a joint statement revealed that the government committee would respond in writing to PTI’s demands within seven days. During this period, the seven political parties represented in the government committee are to consult their leadership and legal teams to present a unified stance to PTI.
Addressing the media post-meeting, government committee spokesperson Senator Irfan Siddiqui and Adviser to Prime Minister Rana Sanaullah dismissed PTI’s demands as baseless. Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Ataullah Tarar reiterated on a television talk show that no commission would be formed in response to PTI’s demands.
On January 17, hopes for progress were further dimmed as PTI’s founder and former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi received 14 and 7 years of imprisonment, respectively, in the £190 million case. This development overshadowed the negotiations, raising questions about their future.
A senior journalist and anchor, Maria Memon highlighted the growing complexity in negotiations. While the government seems interested in forming a commission solely on the May 9 incidents, PTI is insistent on including November 26 in the scope of the investigation, linking the shooting incident to the government.
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Memon believes the real breakthrough is unlikely to occur in the Parliament but rather in the parallel negotiations led by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur. Should progress be made there, it could positively influence the official talks.
Muneeb Farooq, another prominent journalist, views PTI’s demands as reasonable but criticized the government’s rigid stance. According to him, the government justifies its refusal by stating that the issues are judicial matters, unsuitable for resolution via commissions. If the government remains inflexible, Farooq warns, the negotiations could end painfully.
Memon and Farooq both emphasized the government’s insistence on written demands. Memon suggested this strategy aimed to prolong talks and counterclaims that negotiations lacked seriousness. It also allowed the government to publicize PTI’s demands as seeking amnesty, undermining their political standing.
Maria Memon argues that the blame for failure would be hard to assign, given the complexities of the negotiation process. However, she believes political parties would ultimately bear the cost of a failed dialogue.
Muneeb Farooq contends that PTI would blame the government, accusing it of dismissing genuine demands, while the government has already started framing PTI’s demands as seeking undue relief.
Farooq predicts an increase in tensions should the negotiations collapse, potentially leading to a deadlock. He emphasized that PTI must consider the ramifications of failed talks, as this could further isolate them politically.
Maria Memon takes a more optimistic view, suggesting that the ongoing dialogue, despite its challenges, marks a significant breakthrough for Pakistani politics. It establishes a precedent for future political engagement.
Political analyst Majid Nizami believes the recent court verdict against PTI’s leadership could complicate the negotiations further. Resistance within PTI might grow, challenging the efforts of those advocating for dialogue. However, if both committees act responsibly, judicial matters and political negotiations might proceed on separate tracks.
The negotiations remain a tightrope walk, with both sides deeply entrenched in their positions. As political analysts debate the path forward, the fate of Pakistan’s political stability hinges on the ability of both parties to navigate this challenging landscape. Whether dialogue succeeds or fails, the implications will reverberate across the nation's political future.